The New York Stock Exchange will welcome Ormat Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: ORA) executives and guests on September 6, 2023 to celebrate the start of its 20th year of trading on the NYSE.

This report comes from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new newsletter for international markets. CNBC Daily Open tells investors everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Do you like what you see? You can log in Here.

What you need to know today

Prepare for the Fed meeting
U.S. stocks were little changed on Monday as traders await the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Asia Pacific markets fell on Tuesday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped about 0.4% as minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting showed the central bank still believes inflation is “too high”. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.1%, leading to losses in the region.

Rare returns
Early-stage investments in China were not lucrative. According to data from research firm Preqin, only four U.S. dollar-denominated venture capital funds founded between 2015 and 2020 have returned money invested to investors. The four firms are: Fengshion Capital Investment Fund, LYFE Capital USD Fund II and GGV Capital V.

Up on the shelf
Instacart priced its IPO at $30 per share, which is the high end of its expected range. That makes the food delivery company worth about $10 billion, which is about 3.5 times its annual revenue. In comparison, DoorDash, a competitor, trades at 4.25 times. Instacart is the first venture capital-backed tech startup to list on the stock exchange as of December 2021 and will be a signal of the health of the IPO market.

Monthly payment for X
X, formerly known as Twitter, will charge users “a small monthly payment” to fight “vast armies of bots,” Elon Musk said. Musk also revealed that X has 550 million “monthly users,” generating 100 to 200 million posts per day. Separately, Turkish President Recep Erdogan invited Musk to build his next Tesla factory in Turkey, the country’s state media reported.

Extra expensive olive oil
Olive oil prices have risen to $8,900 a tonne this month due to severe droughts in the Mediterranean. That’s over 100% more than last year – and far more than the record of $6,242 set in 1996, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. And if the extreme weather doesn’t abate and supplies run out, prices could continue to rise.

[PRO] Oiling real estate
Oil prices are currently over $90 a barrel and could rise further due to supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Of course, energy and oil companies can be expected to benefit. But surprisingly, two global real estate stocks could also benefit from higher oil prices, Morgan Stanley said.

The final result

Shares barely moved yesterday. All major indexes rose, but the gains were so small – measured in hundredths of a percentage point – that they are better viewed as unchanged. Trading volumes were also subdued. Both the SPDR S&P 500 and the Invesco QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, traded around 25% fewer shares than their 30-day average.

It’s not that investors aren’t sure what the Fed might do at its meeting on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, they are all but certain that the central bank will keep interest rates on hold for now. It’s the November meeting that investors are worried about. Currently, markets believe the probability of an increase is 28.7% – however, this percentage reached as high as 50.89% at the end of August (and was at 31.3% just five hours ago!). These wild swings reflect uncertainty about the November session.

Still, Goldman Sachs believes that “the FOMC may forego a final rate hike this year, which we believe will ultimately be the case,” as the bank’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a Sunday note. But with the U.S. economy running at full speed, the labor market remaining tight – and rocked by strikes – and oil prices rising again, it’s no surprise that the broader market doesn’t really know how inflation – and therefore interest rates – are going The rest will look like this year.

As a result, the Fed’s dot plot, which represents short- and long-term interest rates as assessed by central bankers, is being closely scrutinized by investors. But Hatzius believes the Fed won’t actually pull the trigger, even if members plan another rate hike this year. It’s “just a matter of maintaining flexibility for the time being,” he wrote.

Maybe we should give the Fed the benefit of the doubt. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, certainly does. “In general, Fed watchers like to criticize the Fed and suggest that it is always wrong in its forecasts and actions,” Yardeni said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“But I think they’re actually doing it right this time,” Yardeni said. “And I think we could well have flawless disinflation, where inflation falls without causing an overall economic recession.” This could be an outrageously optimistic prediction. But it is undeniably a cheerful thought – one of the few certainties one can have today.

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