Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing a bear market for almost two years, leaving investors eagerly awaiting the leading cryptocurrency’s next rally. During this time, numerous analyzes and theories have emerged speculating about the timing of Bitcoin’s next rise, even as external factors such as regulatory uncertainty continue to influence the asset.

A notable theory comes from crypto analyst CryptoConwho shared their findings in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on September 7th. CryptoCons The theory relies on historical price movements to provide insight into what to expect in the future.

The analyst’s theory revolves around the “November 28 cycle theory,” which he believes has been key to understanding Bitcoin’s price behavior over the years. The theory suggests that BTC is likely to witness the start of a new bull market on November 28, 2024.

The Bitcoin theory from November 28th. Source: CryptoCon

Follow Bitcoin’s path to the next bull market

According to this theory, Bitcoin’s price movements are cyclical, with each cycle lasting about four years and all revolving around the date of the first Bitcoin halving, which occurred on November 28th.

The essence of CryptoCon’s theory is that significant peaks and troughs in the price of the digital asset occur approximately +/- 21 days from the November 28th date, with peaks marking upward momentum and troughs marking the peak of a downward trend.

CryptoCon noted that Bitcoin’s price movement began with the first low on October 8, 2010, and the cycle curves have peaked every four years since then. After each low point, Bitcoin experiences an early move in the first cycle, followed by an extended mid-cycle lull in which it hovers around the median price, about half of the previous all-time high (ATH). According to the analyst, the next big bull market typically starts at the bottom of the curve.

“The idea that everyone expects four-year cycles allows them to continue on the right path. Things like the price and the exact timing cause surprise. These time cycles still apply today,” he explained.

Therefore, based on this theory, CryptoCon predicts that the next Bitcoin bull run will begin on November 28, 2024. The next peak in Bitcoin price is expected to be approximately +/- 21 days after November 28, 2025, followed by the next low around the same time in 2026. A subsequent mid-cycle lull is forecast for June 2027.

While CryptoCons Although the theory offers a fascinating perspective on Bitcoin’s price movements, it is important to note that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and influenced by a variety of factors, making predictions inherently risky.

Currently, the crypto market is considering factors such as the possible approval of the spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) to trigger a price rally. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin halving is expected to partially contribute to the price increase.

Bitcoin price analysis

Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin saw minor gains over the past 24 hours, with gains of almost 2%, reaching $26,193 at press time. Over the past week, Bitcoin has gained less than 1%.

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold

Despite the short-term gains, Bitcoin is still trading below $30,000, a crucial level for the next bull run.

Disclaimer: The content of this website should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When you invest, your capital is at risk.

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