LATEST: 2025/12/21 08:01 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN
Top Four New Movies Take Over the Domestic Box Office Rankings
This piece was initially drafted Saturday morning and has since been revised Sunday morning with the latest box office estimates (highlighted in bold). For a detailed chart and expanded analysis, please scroll down.
Avatar: Fire and Ash is leading the pack in its debut weekend, though it hasn’t quite lived up to the success of its predecessors. Released on December 19, this third installment in James Cameron’s Avatar series follows the massively successful original 2009 Avatar and the 2022 hit The Way of Water, which rank as the first and third highest-grossing films globally.
According to a report by Variety on Sunday morning, Avatar: Fire and Ash is expected to bring in a domestic opening weekend total of $88 million, slightly below the $90 million forecast from Saturday.
This amount is still more than enough to secure the top spot over the pre-Christmas weekend, outperforming the Sydney Sweeney thriller The Housemaid ($19 million), and the animated features David ($22 million) and The SpongeBob Movie: The Search for SquarePants ($16 million).
Nonetheless, this represents the second largest debut in the franchise. The release of Avatar: Fire and Ash has surpassed the original film’s opening revenue of $77 million ($115.6 million adjusted for inflation), yet it falls more than $40 million short of The Way of Water, which debuted at $134.1 million.
The opening weekends of these films don’t fully indicate their long-term success, especially since the first Avatar ultimately outperformed The Way of Water in total revenue, without inflation adjustments, earning $2.924 billion compared to the latter’s $2.343 billion.
Moreover, films released during the holiday season often see a gradual yet sustained box office performance, benefiting from modest week-over-week declines rather than explosive debuts. However, Avatar: Fire and Ash is lagging behind not only its franchise predecessors but also several other contemporary releases.
The original Avatar secured the fifth highest opening weekend of 2009, trailing behind Twilight: New Moon ($142.8 million), Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($109 million), X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($85 million), and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($77.8 million).
The Way of Water also claimed the fifth top spot in its release year, behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($187.4 million), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($181.3 million), Jurassic World Dominion ($145.1 million), and Thor: Love and Thunder ($144.2 million).
Currently, Avatar: Fire and Ash ranks as the ninth biggest domestic debut of the year. Below is a list of the 2025 releases that outperformed the new movie and their ultimate global earnings:
|
Title |
Domestic Debut |
Worldwide Gross |
|---|---|---|
|
A Minecraft Movie |
||
Considering that only two of the films with larger opening weekends have crossed the $1 billion mark, it suggests that the box office trajectory for Avatar: Fire and Ash might see diminishing returns. However, its international performance, set to be calculated late Sunday morning, remains to be seen.
Both of the previous films in the series garnered over 70% of their total earnings from international markets, indicating potential for a significant boost for this new installment despite its domestic shortfall.
With a reported budget of over $400 million, Avatar: Fire and Ash likely needs to reach a global total of at least $1 billion to break even, but seems poised to achieve this milestone by the end of its theatrical run. Yet, its domestic performance raises questions about its ability to reach the $2 billion mark like its predecessors.
Top 5 Domestic Box Office This Weekend
Here’s the complete Top 5 domestic chart for the weekend:
|
# |
Title |
3-Day Total |
Cumulative (Domestic) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
|||
With a slew of major new films, the domestic Top 5 is nearly filled with newcomers. The only film to maintain its position in the charts is Disney’s billion-dollar success Zootopia 2, which dropped from first to fifth place in its fourth weekend after retaking the lead from Blumhouse’s Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 last weekend.
The influx of new titles has effectively pushed out other lingering films, including Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 (previously No. 2) in its third weekend, Wicked: For Good (previously No. 3) in its fifth, the Indian spy film Dhurandhar (previously No. 4) in its third, and Now You See Me: Now You Don’t (previously No. 5) in its sixth.
